When the price of stainless steel rose in January, I predicted that the price of stainless steel in China would begin to fall after the low start in February.
In fact, since February 27, China’s stainless steel prices have begun to fall.
◆In terms of China’s macroeconomics:
In order to prevent high inflation risks, there is a high probability that monetary policy will gradually tighten this year, and most believe that the entire global monetary policy will be tightened in the second quarter.
In order to prevent the dollar trap, in the face of the expectation of capital tightening, it is possible to return to the pattern of a strong dollar, which will lead to a full decline in commodities.
◆Supply and demand:
During the Chinese New Year holiday, China’s main steel plants did not stop production, which led to the continuous entry of hot-rolled stainless steel produced by major steel plants into the market after the year, leading to a decline in prices.
◆Futures perspective:
As I mentioned earlier, data from the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed that a large number of hot-rolled stainless steel futures 2102 contracts will be delivered in February to enter the market.
This led to a strong supply of hot-rolled stainless steel, and prices began to fall.
◆Raw material supply:
The successful trial production of high matte nickel in Indonesia directly led to a sharp drop in nickel prices.
Recently, the London Futures Exchange Nickel Ore Futures Index fell to 15815 US dollars/ton. On March 10, the Nickel Ore Futures Index on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell to US$17,942/ton.
The closing price of the stainless steel futures 2105 contract was US$2128/ton, down US$40/ton from the previous trading day.
◆Market performance:
The price of 201 cold-rolled rolled products has repeatedly fallen, and the market transaction atmosphere is dismal.
Many traders reported that the transaction was dismal on March 10, and almost no transactions were completed.
The price of 304 cold-rolled stainless steel fell by US$15 to US$70/ton. The market sentiment intensified pessimism.
The steel mill market and futures continued to compete for a decline.
It is difficult to predict the rebound node for the time being, and the demand side is becoming flatter and flatter.
Quote:
1.The London Metal Exchange (LME) is a global trading center for industrial metals. Most of the world’s non-ferrous metals are conducted on LME’s three trading platforms.
2.The Shanghai Futures Exchange currently trades 11 futures contracts including gold, silver, copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, rebar, wire rod, fuel oil, natural rubber, and asphalt.
3.《Forecast: Stainless Steel Prices will Definitely Fall!》–Posted on